Revised Odds

Pretty sure nobody would care about this, but I think I should adjust my playoff probabilites from last week. I wanted the chance that Buffalo could play Minnesota in the Super Bowl. Both have lost four Super Bowl games in the past. At least one team would get a Super Bowl win. One team would go to 0-5, but at some point it isn't that much more of a disappointment. I don't think it would be called a point of diminishing returns. I'm not sure there is even a name for it. Maybe the point of "whatever".

Assuming all the teams have the same chance of winning (not true), I thought since there are seven teams in each conference you have a 1/7 chance of getting to the Super Bowl. But that isn't how it works. They don't all play each other. One team has a bye and the other 6 teams play in the first round. So I need to take one game at a time. Buffalo and Minnesota each had to win three games to get to the Super Bowl. So a 1/2 chance of winning each of those games - 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8. 

So there isn't a 1/7 chance It is 1/8. And for both teams to make it is 1/8 x 1/8 = 1/64. Its not the 1/7 x 1/7 chance I thought last week. 

It doesn't matter, because the chance is now zero since Minnesota lost last week. Hopefully in the next 64 years it happens? That's assuming both make the playoffs each year. Unlikely.